Can Obama win some "battleground" states? This seems to be the key to this election.?

At this point the big ones like NY, CA and IL don't even matter for McCain, because these states will NOT support any Republican candidate (just as TX will not support Obama). But the really impt states seem to be PA, MI, FL and OH. And I don't think Obama can do a thing in MI or FL after what happened during the nomination process. Bottom line:Despite the media's clear favoritism, McCain will still win a general election. It's all about the electoral college, baby. Am I wrong and why?